GBP / USD – Summary forecast
|GBP / USD forecast: H1 2021 price: 1.3900 USD – 1.4700 USD Drivers: breakthrough trend line, bull candles, MACD & RSI Crossover
||GBP / USD forecast: 1 year price: 1.4700 USD – 1.5010 USD Drivers price: Weaker dollar amid stimulus based on COVID-19, downward triangle breakthrough, 50 EMA crossover
||GBP / USD forecast: 3 years price: 1.3500 USD – 1.4300 USD Drivers of prices: slow economic growth in the UK, bearish correction, resistance trends, indication of overbought
Recently, there have been strong bullish movements in the British pound (GBP), which has seen the GBP / USD pair rise from 1.2800, trading at 1.3900, up 6.64% in the last six months. Sterling has been on the rise against the US dollar in recent months, amid a successful Brexit trade agreement between the UK and the European Union. Fresh strength in sterling can also be attributed to the mass distribution of coronavirus vaccines in the UK, which has increased expectations of a return to normal economic activity.
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic caused a sharp drop in the price of GBP / USD, especially during the first quarter. The GBP / USD pair fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis in 2009, when blockades were introduced to curb the spread of the virus, which has had a major impact on economic activity in the UK. However, in the second and third quarters of 2020, the GBP / USD price began to rise amid a bullish correction and easing of lock restrictions in the UK. In early 2021, the GBP / USD pair moved more when the UK finally left the European Union, with a trade agreement in January, and became an independent state again. GBP / USD pair prices reached their highest level since May 2018, at 1.37586.
Current price GBP / USD
Latest price changes in GBP / USD
GBP / USD price forecast for the next 5 years
In the short term, technical indicators suggest that the market remains consolidated as the relative strength index (RSI) has yet to confirm a break above the level of 1.3700 against the US dollar. According to Germany’s Commerzbank, analysts called the GBP / USD break above the 1.3700 level in January a possible false break because it was premature, and also because the RSI has not yet confirmed a major break. Therefore, the market doubts that the GBP / USD pair will consolidate further in the near future. In the long run, Commerzbank has forecast that the GBP / USD pair is targeting at the peak of 2018 above the level of 1.4377 to reach 2021. Citibank analysts predict that GBP / USD will reach the level of 1.3800 for the first quarter of 2021, and for the second quarter the bank has proposed a forecast that the currency pair GBP / USD will reach the level of 1.40 in the long run. Analysts of the British lender with large streets HSBC said that the prospects for the British pound are not promising in their opinion due to the wider dynamics of the basic flow. They told clients of their commercial and investment banking unit that the British pound would fight during 2021. So far, the British pound has been moving mixed as the currency has risen by about 0.70% against the euro and about 0.18% against the US dollar. However, Sterling lost against the Norwegian krone, New Zealand dollars and Australian dollars. According to HSBC, bullish hopes sparked by optimism following the signing of an agreement between the UK and the EU seemed rested due to long-term positioning under the weight. In short, in 2021, HSBC maintained its view of the British pound as a weaker indicator among the G10 currencies. Having in mind the basics and technical data,
GBP / USD factors affecting the British pound (GBP)
In the last four years, the main driver of the British pound has been the developments in the Brexit negotiations with the European Union and the impact of these negotiations on the British economy. The British pound was also affected by the fundamentals, which triggered other factors, such as gross domestic product, industrial production, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Last year, the coronavirus pandemic had a strong impact on global economic performance. Then, after a fairly healthy recovery, Sterling hit the back of a more contagious strain of coronavirus several times, which was identified in the UK during December 2020. A new variant of the COVID-19 virus resulted in a jump in the number of infections in the country, prompting the government to order another a circle of national locks, which again disrupted the British economy and eventually the British pound, once again.
Coronavirus – Impact on the British pound:
No matter what economy or currency we are talking about, the deadly virus has affected economic health and currency valuation. As we all know, COVID-19 originates from the city of Wuhan in China and arrived in the UK in late January 2020. Since then, the total number of coronavirus cases has reached 3,959,784 and the death toll 112,798. The UK is ranked as the country with the fourth highest mortality rate per hundred thousand inhabitants worldwide, and it is also the country with the highest number of coronavirus cases in all of Europe.
In March 2020, the country introduced a detention order at home that banned all unimportant travel and resulted in the closure of most gathering places. That same month, a lock caused by a coronavirus pandemic sent the British pound to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in 35 years. In October 2020, the UK faced many difficulties in controlling the pandemic as a new, more rapidly spreading strain of the virus emerged, which ultimately increased both the number of cases and the number of deaths. However, in December, the UK also became the first country to approve and start using the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine in a mass vaccination program that is still ongoing. Thanks to this massive vaccination program, the UK has begun to recover,
The impact of Brexit on the British pound:
It all started on June 23, 2016, when in a referendum the majority of votes were in favor of the UK leaving the European Union. In March 2017, European Council President Donald Tusk launched Article 50, which began a two-year countdown until the UK formally leaves the EU. Later it came to be called Brexit.
The UK was expected to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019, but a vote in the House of Commons left the government with no choice but to seek EU permission to extend Article 50 and agree on a later Brexit date. Permission to extend the rights was granted by 27 EU leaders just one day after the official request of the then Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May.
Prime Minister May then announced in April 2019 that she would seek a further extension of the Article 50 procedure, as she wanted to work to reach an agreement with the opposition that would receive the support of MPs. At the European Council meeting on 10 April 2019, the UK and the EU agreed to extend the deadline until 31 October 2019. However, in October 2019, the Prime Minister failed to obtain the approval of the House of Commons, which resulted in another request to extend the Brexit process. by 31 January 2020. EU ambassadors complied with this request on 28 October 2019. Meanwhile, Theresa May lost to Boris Johnson in the 2019 UK General Election, after which the newly elected Prime Minister promised to get Brexit completed by the time a new rock. On 23 January 2020, the withdrawal agreement, according to the European Union Act 2020,
The entire year of 2020 was spent in an attempt to reach an agreement on the main risks, a level playing field, the borders of Northern Ireland and various other issues. However, in the last weeks of December, the UK and the EU finally reached an agreement, after a long and challenging round of talks, hampered by coronavirus and blockades. During this period, the pound sterling received beatings.
On 31 December 2020, the transitional period ended and the United Kingdom left the Single Market and the EU Customs Union. Throughout the year, progress in the Brexit negotiations continued to affect the price of the British pound, and after a final deal was secured, the British pound began to rise and has since strengthened only against the US dollar.
The Bank of England’s influence on the British pound:
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey announced an additional quantitative easing (QE) program in November 2020, amid a growing need to support the British economy at a time dramatically affected by the pandemic. In March 2020, QE was £ 645 billion and in June it was expanded to £ 745 billion. Quantitative relief in the UK, by the Bank of England, has reached £ 895 billion. The rise in QE resulted in a decline in the value of the British pound, and these QE measures fluctuated continuously on the GBP / USD currency pair throughout the year.
In March, the Bank of England also cut its rates in half, to 0.25%, and in November 2020, the Bank cut interest rates again, to the lowest level of 0.10%. The reduction in interest rates always has a negative effect on the currency, which means that the British pound was weak due to the downward move of the Bank of England during 2020. Recently, the Bank of England considered reducing interest rates to below zero. At the last monetary policy meeting in February 2021, the BOE asked banks if this would affect their ability to lend.
British Pound Fluctuations in 2020:
The pound sterling is thought to have been undervalued in recent years, as uncertainty over the impact of Brexit has limited momentum in the currency and affected the GBP trend against other currencies. Sterling started in 2020 at 1,308 against greenbacks, but due to blockades caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the currency fell to 1,163 in late March. These sales have spread to financial markets, due to increased demand for safe haven amid growing fears of a pandemic crisis.
In late August, the British pound reached a level of 1,335, after the number of coronavirus cases in the country began to decline during the summer. Hopes for a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU before 31 December began to rise. Then, in late September, the British pound fell again, to 1,275, as the number of coronavirus cases began to rise again. Furthermore, the Brexit negotiations have found a stalemate over fisheries and some other issues. At the end of the year, the British pound reached 1,367, amid growing hopes for a Brexit deal and easing locks in the country. The pound sterling started in 2021 in the range between 1,352 and 1,373, and now the question arises: Will the British pound rise even more in 2021? I think most of the movement depends on the success of the vaccination program in the UK.
Current bullish sentiment surrounding GBP / USD:
The British pound retained the position of this year’s best producer in the world currency market, amid faded expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. On Thursday, the Bank of England refused to expand its quantitative easing program and cut its interest rates, sending strong signals to markets. As a result, expectations of interest rate cuts dissipated and the British pound began to gain strength. So far, the 2021 pound sterling has recorded growth against all major G10 currencies. The outlook for the British pound has improved significantly with successful Brexit negotiations and the removal of threats associated with negative interest rates.
Some analysts believe that despite the top performance of sterling among the G10 currencies in 2021, the GBP / USD pair will collapse as the US dollar also begins to gain strength in the market, due to its safe harbor status and its broad-popularity. A strong dollar could pull a gain in GBP / USD and force a turnaround in the bullish momentum of the pair in the coming weeks.
The strength of the US dollar:
In recent weeks, the US dollar has seen massive buying as investors have switched from a weaker euro. The single currency, the euro, is under pressure due to the slow introduction of the vaccine into the eurozone. This could mean that the blockades will remain in place longer, and the United Kingdom and the United States will leave the euro economy behind.
In addition to delays in vaccines, the EU economy has already struggled compared to the US for several reasons: the number of coronavirus cases in the US has already been declining, locking measures have almost been lifted in many areas and there were high hopes that the new democratic government soon inject a large amount of cash into the US economy.
Technical Analysis, GBP / USD – Will GBP / USD be deducted from 50 SMA?
On a monthly time frame, technical indicators suggest a strong bullish bias for the GBP / USD pair, as the Relative Power Index (RSI) and MACD have crossed the 50 level, suggesting a strong outlook for the cable buying trend. Closing the sample of three white soldiers on a monthly time frame supports strong prospects for the bullish trend to continue. On the higher side, the GBP / USD pair could continue bullish trading all the way to the 1.4393 area, while the continuation of the bullish trend could extend the purchase to the 1.4393 level.
GBP / USD – Monthly chart – Three white soldiers
By crossing the MACD over the intermediate level and closing the histogram over 0, the bull bias of GBP / USD gained further support. In the long run, the GBP / USD pair is likely to target 2018, above the limit of 1.4377 in 2021. During the first quarter of 2021, GBP / USD is likely to reach 1.3800, and in the second quarter Cable may go after the 1.40 level.
GBP / USD – Weekly chart – Breaking down the descending triangle pattern
In the lower time frame, the GBP / USD pair closed a series of bull candles around the 1.3855 area, supporting a strong bullish trend. On the weekly chart we can see that the pair has disrupted the pattern of the descending triangle, which is a sign of bull domination; however, the MACD shows that the bulls are exhausted and that sellers can enter a secure market profit. The cable could show a downward correction, to 1.3565 and 1.3360, before showing further buying trends in the market.